The Portuguese economy maintained between April and June the growth rate registered in the first three months of the year, with domestic demand to boost economic performance and increased imports to give a “significant negative contribution” shows data published on Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 0.4% in chain, a variation equal to that in the previous two quarters (the last in 2014 and the first this year). Compared to the same period last year, growth was 1.5%, a variation rate also identical to the first three months of the year.
Looking at the chain values, the data confirm the economy is growing for five consecutive quarters, or since the first three months of last year. When the comparison is made on-year growth without interruption remains positive since the last quarter of 2013, trajectory that followed a sharp contraction of the economy.
For the full year, the Government is forecasting a growth rate of 1.6% compared to 2014, next projection of values now revealed.
The INE presents only a quick estimate, not disclosing values for the different components of GDP, that just happen to August 31. However, explains that the performance of the economy was based more on domestic demand, hitchhiking investment and consumption than in external demand.
“The positive contribution of domestic demand [sum of private consumption, consumption and public investment] increased in the second quarter, reflecting the acceleration of investment (mainly due to the contribution from changes in inventories, which went from negative to positive in the previous quarter) and, to a lesser extent, private consumption. ” Since external demand (net exports of imports) had “a significant negative contribution to the annual GDP growth, verifying an acceleration of imports of goods and services at a faster pace than exports.”
The latest industry data show a fall of 2.1% in production in June compared with the previous month (it was the largest monthly decline in the euro area), but an increase of 2% compared to June last year ( which represents a slowdown compared to the same increase of 3.6% recorded in May).
As for international trade, recorded in the second quarter an increase of 7.4% in exports of goods, a rhythm lower than imports are growing, arriving at 9%.
In a growth profile that purchases abroad are growing more than sales, stabilization of the economy in positive values are thus to benefit as happened last year, the acceleration of domestic demand, particularly via investment.
latest situation indicators, which refer already to July point to an improvement in the economic climate and consumer confidence although with different performance between sectors (to worsen in manufacturing, improve trade, services and construction). Despite the recovery, warns Rui Bernardes Serra, chief economist at Montepio, “the economic sentiment indicator has been overestimated economic growth, partly because the restrictive fiscal policy remains a constraint on economic activity.”
The economy is far from returning to levels prior to entry into recession. Economists Study Group on the Situation of the Portuguese Economy (NECEP), the Catholic University, speak in a “positive news”, but warned that investment behavior “remains the main doubt about the quality and intensity of economic recovery course “. And leave a notice. “The cumulative break this down cycle from the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2013 was 8.1%,” there is “still a long way to go before achieving the 2010 GDP levels,” the vinca NECEP.
“The improvement in domestic demand by the investment side, if confirmed, is positive because it will tend to be a factor supporting the medium and long term. It will be a good thing in the sense that gives sustainability to the recovery process, “said Teresa Gil Pinheiro, the Department of Economic and Financial Studies of the BPI.
Rui Bernardes Serra predicts an acceleration of economic activity throughout the year and believes that the GDP will grow 1.7%. “The impact of the oil drop and the new measures of the ECB pose upside risks [positive] to forecast”, such as the fact that the Spanish economy to continue to grow above the estimated “something relevant given the high weight that still has the trade with our country. ” On the negative side, the chief economist at Montepio states risk “imminently external factors, related to the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and for Greece.” And it joins the “difficult situation of the labor market, the financial system and the further consolidation objectives of public finances [that] continue to constrain the recovery in domestic demand.”