The IMF has lowered growth forecasts for the global economy because of the departure of the United Kingdom of the European Union (EU), and warns that the risks already identified in the European banking system “may be even more pronounced by ‘ Brexit ‘ “, in particular the difficulties in the Portuguese and Italian banks.
“shock Brexit appears in the middle of unsolved problems in the European banking system, particularly in Italian and Portuguese banks, as identified in the Global Financial Stability Report “, emphasizes the institution led by Christine Lagarde, the update of the World Economic Outlook , released on Tuesday.
IMF believes that “delays” in solving the problems in the financial system during the crisis may be exacerbated before the uncertainty in the European environment and puts it and ste problem between the main risks to the global economy . “The persistent turmoil in financial markets and the global increase in risk aversion may have serious macroeconomic consequences, including the intensification of the difficulties of banks, particularly in vulnerable economies ” , accents .
the warning is made in relation to both countries seeking a solution to the problem of impairment and bad debts: Italy, with the granting of government guarantees on troubled assets that banks try to sell packages; Portugal, which at the same time preparing to recapitalize the Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD) discussing the possibility, as admitted by the Prime Minister to create a vehicle for resolving bad debts.
reference comes a few days of being known, on 29 July, the results of tests stress to European banks. This time there is no Portuguese financial institution subject to the exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA), but among the 53 European banks tested five Italian groups, including the Bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the oldest bank in the world in relation to which anticipate new capital building needs.
the report Portugal and Italy, but nothing explicitly says about the German case, for which the IMF has recently referred to the alert that Deutsche Bank is the global “the largest net contributor to systemic risks”, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. The failures in capital and risk management plans made with the Deutsche Bank subsidiary in the United States, as well as Santander, chumbasse this year in test stress the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
the “political divisions”
the “Brexit” to banks, there are several risks that the IMF says could hurt the global recovery – the “political divisions” in developed economies to commit to tackling structural problems, namely the crisis of culled, the “threat “a protectionist turn in the economic policies of countries, geopolitical tensions and terrorism.
IMF says that the the ” Brexit “has an impact on the evolution of the world economy and has revised downwards its forecasts for this year and next (growth of 3.1% this year, followed by 3.4% in 2017, down 0.1 percentage points each year compared to April projections ).
for the eurozone, the IMF is predicting that the economy will grow this year by 1.6% more than projected in April, because of the first-half performance (the first three months, vinca IMF, growth was better than expected, with an acceleration of investment and a recovery in domestic demand).
But with the associated uncertainty regarding the output of the United Kingdom of the European Union, its second largest economy, the outlook for 2017 deteriorated. Justifies the IMF: “In light of the potential impact of increased uncertainty in consumer confidence and business (and any bank tensions), the growth forecasts for 2017 have been revised downwards by two percentage points compared to April,” passing . 1.4%
UK slows
the UK’s trajectory was already slowing down this year – and the slowdown worsens – but the prospect of recovery which was expected even April 2017 now no longer exists.
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