The deviation colossal IMF News Journal

The”deviation colossal” in the forecasts of the IMF for the Portuguese economy – in which, little more than two months after the previous forecast, is now expected to far more economic growth and less deficit, this year and next – which means, above all, a recognition of the good results of the socialist Government in front of the economic and fiscal. Good news, therefore. However, this case should be given to reflection very serious in the IMF: a shift so sudden and so profound in the face of the forecasts bleak, announced just two months ago is not normal. A deviation as large between the forecasts made in such a short space of time proves that the previous analysis of the IMF, the office of the department headed by Vítor Gaspar, was totally lagged the Portuguese reality.

of course, no lack, especially in this World of uncertainty, are predictions which have failed. All institutions and all governments, however much they try to be based on the best information available and to guess the future, averbam failures in their exercises of prediction, by a greater or lesser margin. But the case of this failure clamorous of the forecasts of the IMF on Portugal is absolutely unique.

Let’s look at the question of the deficit. You need to remember that when the earlier forecast of the IMF was made, in the past month of September, they were already after almost 9 months of the year. Was available, therefore, abundant information, that confirmed the good performance of budget execution and he would take all the institutions (Council of Public Finances, UTAO and the European Commission) to predict values for the deficit in 2016 is far below that of the mythical 3%. Now, without any reasonable basis, and precisely when Portugal was being discussed in Brussels your Budget for 2017, and the cancellation of penalties for non-compliance with the deficit goals in 2015, the IMF made a forecast simply estapafúrdia of the 3% deficit both in 2016 as in 2017 (which would mean to fail the exit from the excessive deficit procedure). Now, just two months later, the IMF surrenders finally to the evidence and was forced to correct in strong down its forecast of the deficit , estimating a comfortable 2.6% for this year and, imagine, 2.1% for 2017.

See also the case of the expected economic growth for the current year: from 1% in September, the IMF jumps now to a forecast of 1.3%, which is still more optimistic than the Government itself! It is certain, at the date of the previous estimate were not yet known the final figures of the GDP in the 3.First quarter, but were already available data mini more than enough to know that the economy would accelerate, and not to contract or stagnate. as I was underlying to the wrong prediction of the IMF.

This is far from being a subject less: to err so grossly in their forecasts, the IMF erred also in his speech on the Portuguese situation in a very time sensitive and with that induced in error the markets and the economic agents. In short, with its error, the IMF has harmed Portugal.

MEP