The Portuguese public debt is expected to have overcome the government forecasts for 2014, ranging between 127.9% and 128.7% of GDP, according to the accounts of the Technical Unit of Budget Support (UTAO).
According to a note from UTAO, that the Lusa had access today, the public debt from the perspective of Maastricht, which account for Brussels, “amounted to 224,500 million in late 2014, a value in nominal terms was above the planned “and that, if confirmed,” an increase of 5.3 billion euros in nominal terms compared to the end of 2013 “.
As a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated UTAO indicates that the debt ratio is in a value “between 127.9% and 128.7% of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] ‘above the last official forecast, included in the State Budget for 2015, which pointed to the 127.2%.
“For this differential competes not only the slippage in the debt level in nominal terms but also the possibility of being discharged lower than expected nominal GDP “also reveal the technical supporting parliament, adding that the forecast of economic growth of the Government (1%) was slightly higher than the released today by the INE – Instituto National Statistics (0.9%).
The UTAO also states that, considering the increase of public debt higher than expected, “that the forecast of the Ministry of Finance still could finish (.. .) would require an increase in nominal GDP compared to 2013 more than 3%, a scenario that is not seen as likely. “
Compared to the most recent estimate of the executive, of 127.2%, the forecast the UTAO to the value of the Portuguese public debt “in a differential of EUR 1.2 billion.”
The independent technical report that “for this deviation has contributed to less use of deposits in debt amortization and an unfavorable exchange rate effect which led to an increase in the ‘stock’ of debt when measured in euros. “
The UTAO also points out that, if confirmed its projection, the public debt increased between 2013 and 2014, not entering a falling trend, as provided by Government.
“The projections are confirmed by the European Commission, of 128.9%, and the central value of the projection of UTAO, 128 3%, public debt as a percentage of GDP have increased in 2014, albeit very slightly, “experts say.
In relation to net debt of central government deposits, the UTAO estimated to have increased to 207 billion euros, “further 5.7 billion euros than that recorded in late 2013.”
The Government stated that the debt had been located in 127.2% of GDP in 2014, a more optimistic estimate than the international creditors: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the debt ratio is 127.8%, and the European Commission points to 128.9%
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