“For European banks in general, and for Portuguese banks is positive, because the decline in interest rates allows lower financing costs and increase financial margins, which helps to improve the profitability of banks,” said Pedro Lino, the DIF Broker administrator.
Enrique Díaz-Álvarez, risk director of Ebury, aligns the same vein, considering that “the measures announced today by the ECB is very good news for Portuguese banks because they decrease the concerns that exist about its liquidity.”
Already Rui Barbara, an economist and asset manager Banco Carregosa raises some reservations about the success of the decisions taken by the ECB in particular cut all its interest rates, through the director rate to 0% (a new record low) and strengthening the program of buying assets that launched a year ago.
“All seen and weighted get disturbed with the possibility of monetary policy measures have been exhausted, to what the ECB aims: economic growth, more credit to businesses and some inflation,” launched, stressing that “the money that the ECB has `inundado` the market has not solved the problems.”
This is because “money given to banks is still not reach the real economy,” said the expert.
As for the impact on citizens, especially banking customers, Pedro Lino `separates águas`, noting that mortgage holders indexed to Euribor rates, as is the case with most of the mortgage loans, will be benefited, while depositors will be harmed.
“Who will pay the bill is who spared a lifetime,” he said, anticipating long since “than deposit rates drop,” a move that leads to increased net interest income of banks.
So Pedro Lino has no doubt that today’s ECB decision aim to “finance and help banks”, with the side effect “losses for depositors and gains for those who got into debt.”
The official also said that these measures “will not encourage greater demand for credit,” as banks have to comply with the new and tightened European rules for the sector, and currently there are very stringent criteria the level of risk in lending .
An idea shared by Rui Barbara: “We may have a problem in finding: it is not because interest rates are zero or even negative in itself, which increases the credit and who is already quite indebted, it is not have. negative interest rates which will borrow more. in addition, the banking recapitalization effort has prevented more money reaches the real economy. ”
Therefore, the expert wonders “whether these measures will still have a significant effect or is only marginal and that alternatives could be used.”
In turn, Pedro Lino also points to another issue, related to the increase in household income, more specifically, the housing credit holders and other receivables whose remuneration for the bank is associated with a reference rate (Euribor).
“With all this global uncertainty, particularly in Europe – the refugee crisis,` `and Brexit` Grexit` – the more certain is that the increase in disposable income for these people does not mean an increase in consumption, but rather savings because there is the ‘factor confiança` “he said.
The downward revision of growth targets of the euro zone for 2016 from 1.7% to 1.4%, is another point analyzed by Pedro Lino, which he stressed that the amendment “undermines the foundations of the State Budget of the socialist government” , based on the premise that an increase in disposable income will lead to a rise in consumption, so “undermines growth targets” of the Portuguese government.
“If our partners grow unless we can hardly achieve the figures indicated in the document. They perceive now the Brussels concerns,” he said.
At today’s meeting, the Board of Governors of the ECB also decided to extend the released debt purchase program for a year and spent the monthly volume of 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros. In addition to raising the level of investment, the ECB has also extended the scope of this program, opening it to new asset classes such as corporate debt.
“Who earns more are large companies, because they are the ones who have kept the level of investment required to be eligible” in the ECB’s asset purchase program, said Pedro Lino, lamenting that small and medium-sized enterprises, which are the engine the economy, get left out.
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