In the analysis of the macro-economic forecasts on which the government included in the stability program, the Board of Public Finance (CFP) includes a number of warnings and recommendations.
The institution led by Teodora Cardoso begins immediately by criticize the fact that the Ministry of Finance has not changed its estimate for GDP growth this year, “despite the information currently available to recommend the revision of this projection.”
“You would expect an adjustment of estimate for 2016 not only for the most up to date incorporating information from time series and leading indicators of economic conditions, but also due to the publication of the National Accounts for the year 2015, “the CPF report published on Friday, 22 April.
in the Stability Programme the government estimates a GDP growth of 1.8% this year and an acceleration in growth to 2.1% in 2020. Despite the downward revision in the coming years the CFP points out that these new estimates do not incorporate “existing considerable risks in the short and medium term.” And “lead a difficult balance level of uncertainty.”
The CFP emphasizes that “the macroeconomic forecasts of PE / 2016 [Stability Program] involve a high degree of uncertainty regarding the assumptions made for the external demand, which influence the behavior of various components of GDP, in particular exports and investment. “
the projections inserted in the stability program projects growth of 1.8% in 2017, 1 9% in 2018, 2% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020. growth in private consumption stagnates at 1.8% over the year, and exports (growing 4.9% from 2017).
About the various components of GDP, the CFP states that “the composition of the growth of aggregate demand from 2017, based on the dynamism of investment and exports, to materialize, it is the most suitable for the Portuguese economy “.
the main risks identified in the projections of the government, the CFP highlights the” cautious assumptions on the evolution of foreign demand and export growth in the medium term “and” reasons for the dynamics of investment. “
” in addition, the instability around the Portuguese financial system is a real risk to the achievement of the analyzed macroeconomic scenario, “he added.
CFP also notes that these risks, if they materialize, “may lead to a revision of the expected results to the budgetary targets”, and the “set of forecasts for the period 2017-2020 presents a higher risk of non-realization”.
in the report published this Friday, the CFP points out that the estimate of the government for real GDP growth in 2016 (1.8%) is above the projections of the main official institutions (between 1.4 % and 1.7%). And that in the following years is the same, as can be seen in the table below.
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