In the monthly report, released today in Paris, the IEA warns that future falls in prices increase the risk of social instability in some producing countries.
Oil demand in 2015 is expected to increase 0.9 million barrels per day to stand at 93.3 million barrels, less about 230,000 barrels than previous estimates of the organization, representing the world’s major oil consumers.
Oil prices fell more than 40% since June, and today is a barrel to be traded around $ 60, minimum levels since 2009, while production of US aid to oversupply.
But the cheap oil is not causing an increase in consumption, says the IEA, adding that the share lost for renewable energy sources should not be replaced again by cheap oil.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), “a weak economic recovery, a weak wage growth and (…) deflationary pressures should more than offset the lower oil prices stimuli” it said.
Any increase in consumption that cheap oil would allow the oil importing countries would be offset or more than offset by the damage to oil producers, says the IEA, highlighting the case of Russia, which is being hit twice, first by the fall of oil revenues and on the other by the sanctions imposed by the West.
According to the IEA, demand for oil from Russia is expected to fall 3.4 million barrels per day, against an estimated last month that pontava for a fall of 195,000 barrels per day.
“Low oil prices and negatively affect significant export revenues in net oil exporting countries, affecting the yield and lowering the demand,” also refers to the IEA.
Thus, concludes the organization, “the result of downward pressure in oil prices increases the risk of social instability or financial difficulties if producers find it difficult to pay the debt.”
tags: IEA, Paris
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