The International Energy Agency believes that the current oversupply of oil in the market tend to adjust to a situation of greater balance in relation to demand in the second half of the year, as low prices continue to affect the production of raw material out of the petroleum Exporting Countries Organization (OPEC).
the supply of raw material will decrease to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day in the second half of the year compared to 1.5 million barrels in the first six months of 2016 anticipates the IEA, in a report released this Thursday, April 14.
the new forecast of the institution is based on the expectation that the production by the oil-producing US shale recue the most since 1992, with the oil of the region to discuss with the sharp rise in costs due to lower crude oil prices.
“There are signs that the very early fall in the production of shale oil in the uS is gathering pace, “the same report.
Once you have touched minimum of 12 years at the start of the year, crude oil prices soared 30% in past two months, after Saudi Arabia and Russia have begun talks to reach an agreement to freeze oil production.
new estimates
the new estimates mark a change in the expectations of the IEA, which last February had increased its estimates for global oil supplies and warned of further declines in oil prices.
the IEA foresees a production break outside OPEC of about 700 thousand barrels of oil per day this year to an average of 57 million daily. While the production of shale oil has proved more resistant to lower prices than expected, the IEA notes that there is increasing evidence that “production declines are accelerating.”
Along with the decrease of production in the uS, the IEA said it is confident that the fuel consumption increases by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2016. the increase in consumption, associated with lower production will contribute to a better balance between supply and demand in second half of the year.
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