Portuguese economy to grow back less than the euro zone at the end of 2015 – publico

                 

                         
                     

                 

 
 

The Portuguese economy grew 0.2% in the last three months of the year, a result that confirms the weak performance recorded in the second half of last year and is the second consecutive quarter of weaker performance than the area average euro. The GDP growth in total 2015 was 1.5%, a result that had already been anticipated in recent weeks by the Government and other international institutions. Provisional data published on Friday by the National Statistics Institute in its flash estimate of National Accounts.

Once you have registered in the first two quarters of the year GDP growth in chain of 0.5% and have stagnated in the third quarter, the Portuguese economy again in the fourth quarter to a positive change. The achieved value of 0.2%, however, is more moderate than that presented earlier this year.

According to the INE, for this variation in GDP chain, contributed positively demand net external, notably because of higher export growth. In contrast, there was a negative contribution of domestic demand, which was particularly affected by the reduction of investment.

Looking at GDP growth compared with the same period last year, is also evident trend softening of registered economy in the second half of the year. In the first two quarters, the annual economic growth stood at 1.6%. In the third quarter there was a slowdown to 1.4%, and now the INE reveals that in the last quarter of the year this indicator fell to 1.2%.

In the full year, the end result was a GDP growth of 1.5%, more than the 0.9% in 2014 and according to what were the most recent forecasts for the economy.

divergence Confirmation
Portugal returned, as had already happened in the third quarter, to present an economic performance which is below the average of its European partners. According to the data also published Friday by Eurostat, the euro zone economy recorded a chain in growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 of 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% Portuguese.

in this period, the GDP growth in the euro area slowed from 1.6% in the third quarter to 1.5% in the fourth.

in the first half of the year, Portuguese economy had managed to show growth rates above the European average, which seemed to mean the return, after the crisis, the convergence trend. However, in the second half of the year, and although the rest of the euro zone did not check any acceleration in the economy, the aim of the Portuguese convergence with the European average was not reached.

In the rest of euro zone, the pace of the economy continues, as always, to be marked by the progress of Germany. Europe’s largest economy maintained a GDP chain growth of 0.3%, which caused the annual growth fell from 1.7% in the third quarter to 1.3% in the fourth. This result was decisive for the slowdown in the overall euro zone

In contrast, the other great powers of the euro zone -. Spain, France and Italy – remained in the fourth quarter one momentum of stable growth compared to the previous quarter, even with an improvement in the annual GDP growth.

the highest rate at this stage is between these countries, achieved by Spain, which grew 0.8% in chain , raising its annual rate of change of GDP from 3.4% to 3.5%.

Greece into technical recession

on the negative side, highlight for Greece, which confirmed the entry into technical recession (defined as a situation in which the economy has two consecutive quarters of negative growth in chain) in the second half of last year. After the GDP has fallen 1.4% during the third quarter of last year, now got to know that fell over 0.6% in the last three months of the year.

The return to technical recession it happens after extremely difficult negotiations he held with the European authorities in the early summer of last year to ensure the extension of loans granted under the program troika . During these negotiations were imposed limits on the withdrawal of deposits to stop the bank run that has now been recorded, a measure that has not been canceled altogether.

The Greek government and its European partners finally arrive an agreement that led to the signing of a new bailout program that, in addition to granting a loan, provides for new austerity measures.

on an annual basis, the fall of the Greek economy was 1.9% in the fourth quarter. Since 2010, since the beginning of the crisis that Greece has witnessed a drop in its economy, with record lows in consumption and investment, with the unemployment rate close to 28% in 2013.