Board of Public Finance back to doubt the government accounts – Express

The Board of Public Finance (CFP) has doubts about the economic growth forecasts available by the Government in the stability program and, in particular, can not identify the articulation of the stability program (SP) and the National Reform Programme ( PNR) with the macroeconomic scenario presented. In the PE analysis 2016-2020 released today, the institution chaired by Teodora Cardoso back to question the numbers of executive and remember that he had already warned before to “significant risks into two main areas: the assumptions about the external environment and insufficient economic justification to the dynamics of investment and exports, which alicerçava economic growth on the horizon of the program. “

today’s report also said that there was the expectation that this situation could best be explained” by knowledge more detailed articulation between the macroeconomic scenario and the other economic policy instruments foreseen in the stability program itself (PE) or the National Reform Programme (NRP). ” But that, says the CFP, has not happened so because there is in Parliament or in the NRP “any reference to the implementation of the new Budgetary Framework Law and the Accounting Standards System for Public Administrations” which represents “two major gaps precisely find that implementing the indispensable basis to that joint. “

in terms of fiscal trajectory, CFP highlights the fact that the accounts of the Government, almost 2000 million improvement in the budget balance expected in the period 2016-2020 result of the contribution of economic growth (a total of EUR 5.2 billion planned adjustment). And yet it stresses that the resulting piece of concrete measures totaling 2.4 billion euros, most of the effort being planned for 2017.

This is a year in which Portugal will have to do a major effort to reduce the budget deficit and for which Parliament has provided a list of measures, including tax changes, for which there is no achievement. Even the famous annex that has since been known.

The measures, which measures?

“The lack of specification of an important part of fiscal consolidation measures poses risks to the materialization of the projections presented, “says the CFP. He adds that “about a third of the volume of savings provided by the Ministry of the expenditure side of Finance presents a concrete specification, lacking specification the remaining part related to the expected reduction in expenditure on intermediate, investment and another current expenditure, a cumulative total 1775 M € at current prices “.

the impact of many of the measures envisaged, reads the report,” is dependent resulting efficiency gains, including the Expenditure Review that is in progress “and that can work” must be specified each year, namely as State Budget, concrete measures to achieve its objectives while minimizing execution risk “

European rules met qb

the day before taking the European Commission’s position on the Portuguese Parliament, the body headed by Teodora Cardoso back to say something that has been repeated countless times in recent times: the strategy Government’s budget maintains the nominal deficit below 3% of GDP but does not meet the minimum structural adjustment required by European rules. The only exception, says the CFP, is the year 2018

What you can even raise doubts about the departure of Portugal’s excessive deficit procedure:. “The trajectory presented to the balance would close the Procedure for excessive deficit based on 2016 values, then going to apply the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact. However, based on the information available, the planned developments for the structural balance is not in accordance with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact as it does not provide for achieving the goal of medium-term time horizon of the PE / 2016 or ensure compliance the minimum structural annual adjustment in any of the years covered by the program. “

He added that the EP only” ensures compliance with the minimum structural adjustment provided for in the Budget Framework Law (LEO) in the year 2018 “.