the first quarter 2016 figures were released Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics
The National Institute of Statistics (INE) has reviewed today’s high economic growth in the first quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.9% YoY and 0.2% qoQ.
the INE today released the highlight of Quarterly National Accounts for the first quarter of this year, after he revealed in the flash estimate of 13 May, the Portuguese economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter of this year compared to the last quarter of 2015 and increased 0.8% year on year.
Despite the upward revision, the figures mean that economic growth slowed year on year, once between January and March last year GDP had increased 1.7%, stabilizing compared to the last three months of 2015 when GDP advanced 0.2% also.
According to the INE, in annual terms, GDP increased by 0.9 % in volume between January and March (ranging from 1.3% in the previous quarter).
the net external demand registered a negative contribution of 1.1 percentage points to annual GDP growth, equal to the observed in the fourth quarter 2015, verifying a slowdown of exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services.
the contribution of domestic demand, in turn, was 2.0 percentage points, lower than in the previous quarter (2.4 percentage points) “due to reduced investment, since private consumption accelerated and public consumption maintained the pace of growth in the previous quarter,” said the institute.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, GDP registered a 0.2% growth rate in real terms (rate identical to that observed in the previous quarter).
“the contribution of domestic demand was positive mainly due to the growth in private consumption, while the contribution of net external demand was negative, reflecting the reduction in exports of goods and services and the increase in imports of goods and services, “the INE.
Second the office of statistics, compared with the flash estimate for the first quarter, the new used basic information involved revisions in the annual rates of change and of the GDP chain, “particularly due to the incorporation of additional information on deflators of exports and imports “.
private consumption, in volume, showed an annual rise of 2.9% in the first quarter, 0.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate observed in the previous quarter.
“This development was mainly due to the acceleration of spending on durable goods, which went from an annual increase of 7.5% in the previous quarter to 12.8%, largely reflecting the evolution of the automotive component,” signals .
the investment, in turn, decreased by 0.6%, after annual growth of 4.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting the decrease in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) which went from an annual increase of 1.0% in the previous quarter to a fall of 2.2%.
in turn, the contribution from changes in inventories to annual GDP growth was 0, 3 percentage points lower than in the preceding quarter (0.5 percentage points).
“the behavior of GFCF in construction explained to a large extent, the decrease in total gross fixed capital formation recorded in the first quarter, recording a year change of -3.9% in real terms, after increasing 4.4% in the fourth quarter, “the INE.
according to the institute, exports of goods and services in volume passed an annual change of 2.8% in the fourth quarter to 2.2% in the first quarter, “as a result of the deceleration of both components, more intense in the case of services.”
exports of goods They recorded an annual rate of 2.6% (2.8% in the previous quarter), while exports of services increased by 1.1% YoY (2.7% in the fourth quarter).
the INE signals, this heading, which exports accelerated tourism in the first quarter 2016, while exports of other services declined.
imports of goods and services in volume, in turn, increased by 4 6% YoY, still decelerating growth of 5.3% observed in the previous quarter.
“This development resulted from the slowdown in imports of goods, which increased by 5.0% YoY (6.2% in the previous quarter), as imports of services accelerated, with an annual growth rate of 1.7% (0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015), “justified.
GVA (Gross Value Added) Total base prices slowed, from an annual increase of 1.3% in the last quarter of 2015 to a growth of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016.
employment for all the fields of activity of the economy, seasonally adjusted, recorded an annual growth of 1.1% in the first quarter, after increasing 1.8% in the previous quarter, while paid employment (also corrected seasonality) year change of 1.7% in the first quarter (1.8% in the fourth quarter).
The government expects economic growth of 1.8% this year, estimated that signed the Budget State in 2016 and remained with the presentation of the Stability Programme
This goal has been considered optimistic, below the estimates of the main international financial institutions and national level. the European Commission and the Bank of Portugal anticipated the Portuguese GDP to grow 1.5%, while the International Monetary Fund predicts that advances 1.4%.
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