“The Portuguese population is expected to fall 15% by 2050, but the older population is expected to grow to 35% of the total, without additional policy measures, this would increase public spending related to pensions, health and long-term care for 24% of GDP and public debt would rise to 161% of GDP, “reads a comment sent today to customers of Standard & amp; Poor’s, and that the Lusa had access.
The document, entitled `Global Aging 2016: An aging population of Portugal is another Orçamental` Challenge, admits that” there was some progress in pension reform, “but adds that” short-term fiscal outlook for Portugal is overshadowed by several impediments to economic growth. ”
The analysis made Portugal is part of a global study conducted to analyze the cost of aging in the middle of this year, with various scenarios, including one in which additional measures are not taken, and the implications of various scenarios in the coming decades.
“Efforts in past reforms of Social Security managed to partly alleviate the risks to the sustainability of public finances in the long run because of an aging population,” said an analyst at S & P Global Ratings marko Mrsnik.
“However, we hope that the prospect of evolution [` outlook`] budget will continue under pressure due to weak economic outlook` ‘and the absence of a certain reduction in the budget deficit and public debt, which are also reflected in the additional costs of recapitalization of banks, “the analyst added.
“Our analysis suggests that without more political and on budget reforms, the net public debt may reach 161.5% of GDP in 2050 in Portugal, higher than the average of the sample, which is in 134% of GDP” , the analyst added, warning also that “no important steps to contain the rising costs related to age, the budgetary costs of an aging population will not be contained without additional measures.”
The public debt of Portugal is currently at 131.9% of GDP, according to data released today by the Bank of Portugal.
The report of the S & P was also shipped the same day the Minister of Labour, Solidarity and Social Security, Vieira da Silva, argued that the deficit will be below 2.5%, the Portuguese economy is recovering and that will be one of the vectors of the preparation of the state budget for 2017.
Asked about possible increases in pensions during a press conference after the Council of Ministers today, the minister did not want to “advance particular aspects for 2017,” but stated that the budget for next year the government “will continue to implement those that have been basic choices from the start “and go through” recovery Portuguese yields. ”
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