Unemployment rate with biggest drop since at least 1998 – publico

                 

                         
                     

                         
                     

                 

 
                         

The unemployment rate fell to 11.9% in the second quarter, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, which represents the most positive development of this indicator since at least 1998.

                     

                         The unemployment rate returns so after two consecutive quarters of increases, at a decreasing trend, falling below those recorded at the time of arrival of the troika and the current government took office in spring 2011. At that time, recorded up an unemployment rate of 12.1%.

According to data released Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute, were created in Portugal during the second quarter of 2015 103 700 more jobs. In the same period, the number of unemployed decreased by 92 500 people. The number of unemployed is already lower by 38,000 compared to the arrival of troika , the number of jobs continues to be substantially lower, a difference of 219,000.

Data unemployment now published are not adjusted for seasonal effects. Normally, the second quarter is the one who presents more positive changes due to the creation of temporary jobs that usually occurs in the summer. It is, moreover, why the largest decline in the unemployment rate, from 16.4% to 10, 8%, occurred in the Algarve. In the second quarter of 2013, the unemployment rate was recorded in the country’s total down 1.1 percentage points during the same period of 2014 the decrease was 1.2 points.

When looking at variation of indicators of the labor market over the same period last year, the trend is less positive due to deterioration recorded during the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first of 2015. Thus, the unemployment rate recorded a decrease of two percentage points over the same period, a rate of descent that is below that recorded in 2014, when the drop was close to 2.5 points.

In this period, the number of jobs created was 66.2 thousand and began to register least 108,500 unemployed.
What happened in the last four years
Data on developments in the labor market promise dominate much of the political debate until the elections. The monthly unemployment data published by the INE, with significant revisions from month to month, had already been the subject of controversy, and now, the decline recorded in the second quarter is expected to pull the various parties of their arguments that make reading the results.

The comparison between the situation in the second quarter of 2011 (when the troika came and the current government took office) and we are witnessing now will have a prominent role in this debate .

The unemployment rate was 12.1% in the second quarter of 2011. He emphasized the upward trend already recorded before in the following quarters, reaching a historical high of 17.5% in the first quarter 2013. From there began, with some interruptions in the middle, down, down now to 11.9%, a lower value than the starting point of 2011. According to figures from INE (using the official criteria for calculating this indicator) there are now 620,000 unemployed in Portugal, 38 000 less unemployed than there were when it came to troika .

When you look at the number of employees, there is not yet back to the levels of the past. In the second quarter of 2011, there were 4.799 million employees and to the first quarter of 2013 that number dropped uninterrupted and very sharply. Disappeared during this period 445 000 jobs.

Since the beginning of 2013 until now there has been a recovery, especially for this last quarter. 226,000 jobs were recovered (over 100 thousand in the second quarter of 2015). The balance of the last four years but continues to be negative, with a loss of 219,000 jobs.

How do you explain that during the same time period, register a reduction in unemployment in surveys detected INE while the number of jobs decreases?

There are several reasons for this phenomenon. One of the main is the very rapid decrease in population residing in Portugal. Over the past four years, according to estimates by the INE, there were less 212 thousand people in Portugal. Part is due to the greater number of deaths than births and elsewhere corresponds to a negative net migration. This trend also continued in the second quarter of 2015 with a further reduction of 11 thousand people in the population.