UTAO: GDP grows 1.4% with Government accounts – Magazine Saturday

UTAO: GDP grows 1.4% with Government accounts

Technical Parliament doubt that goal Executive for economic growth to materialize and increase pressure for review low forecasts.

13:03 • Business

by Marta Moitinho Oliveira – Business Journal

the economy is expected to grow only 1.4% this year to verify the assumptions used by the Ministry of Finance to prepare the GDP growth forecast for this year.
calculations of the technical Unit of budget support (UTAO) in the technical information note where specialists who provide support to Members, analyze the results of budget implementation relating to the first four months of the year.
In the report, the business had access, UTAO of the latest figures from the National Statistics Institute (INE) on the evolution of GDP in the first quarter and do the math to growth for the rest of the year.
“Given the disclosure of the estimate of national accounts for the first quarter of 2016 by INE a growth of 0.2% chain, it is found that for an increase of 1.8% of GDP in 2016 will require the average change in the following quarters chain is approximately 0.9%, “write the experts from Parliament.
In the state budget for 2016 and in the stability program, the government has set an economic growth target of 1.8% for this year.
According to the accounts of technical, forecasting a GDP growth of 0.9% in each quarter is “more demanding” than that was the basis of the accounts of both the budget and the stability program, who was sent to Brussels in April
Using the latest government projection. – the stability program which assumed an average growth of 0.6% chain – “it is estimated that the annual GDP growth in 2016 is 1.4%, “says UTAO. This calculation maintains the intra-annual growth dynamics envisaged by the Ministry of Finance.
estimate of technical Parliament will thus swell the doubts surrounding the economic growth forecasts of the government for this year. The Government has shown resistance to revise predictions, but both the President as the PS itself now admit (and desdramatizam) the need for an amending budget to correct the executive’s goals for this year. The Executive, October is the month considered ideal to reassess forecasts.

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