The strength of rising food prices should continue troubling inflation in the coming months, as the agricultural products follow along, because the grain crop failure. As the effects of this increase on wholesale have not yet been realized to the full retail, the perception of analysts is that the Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) are pressed at this time of year when normally expected some relief. In addition to this pressure, the atypical weather of recent days, with cold weather in several regions of the country, should influence inflation, putting high risk in the projections for the National Index of the Consumer Price (IPCA) in 2016. Another point highlighted is that the inflationary risk may also lengthen the start of monetary easing cycle by the Central Bank (BC).
last Wednesday, another indicator of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) reinforced the advance of wholesale inflation . The General Price Index – 10 (IGP-10) reached 1.42%, driven especially by the wholesale. The Producer Price Index (IPA) changed by 1.89%, with the IPA Agricultural going to 4.91% and the industrial, to 0.70%. Although the effect of enhancement wholesale is not direct, it turns out to result in high pressures of the food chain of products that use raw materials as a feedstock. “Part of proteins is that more can be influenced. Milk is rising, a little fruit that. The high is still limited. If this situation is prolonged to the point of compromising the supply, can generate more inflation by more than consumers are resisting due to the economic recession, “says economist Pedro Ramos, the Bank Sicredi.
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