The growth of the world economy and international trade will be higher in 2017 and 2018 after the slowdown that occurred in 2016, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published this Monday.
THE IMF held today the first update of its forecasts and projections published in October last year on the occasion of their annual meeting. Not stirred in the projections overall, but has revised upwards the growth of the United States in 2017 and especially 2018 and the Euro Area in 2017.
Among the seven major developed economies in the world – the G7 -, analyzed by the technical experts of the IMF in this update, the USA is the only one that will record, in the two-year projection, an annual growth above the average of developed economies.
After a break of one-tenth in the rate of growth of the world economy in 2016, with the rate falling from 3.2% in the previous year to 3.1%, the IMF maintains, without change, the ascending projections of 3.4% this year and 3.6% next.
Italy and Japan, the slower
The U.S. and India will grow more than in 2016, Russia and Brazil will get out of recession, but China, Germany, Spain and Uk will grow less than in the past year, Saudi Arabia will register a very significant deceleration (1.4% in 2016, to 0.4% in 2017, being the country that suffered the largest correction in low in relation to the projections of last October the IMF), and Italy and Japan will be the weakest in the major developed economies, with projections of annual growth below 1%. Mexico, one of the targets of the rhetoric of protectionism of the president-elect of the USA, underwent an annual review in the low six-tenths for 2017 and 2018.
In international trade, in spite of the increasing risks of protectionism, the Fund points to a clear acceleration on a global scale. 1.9% in 2016, to double the annual pace in 2017 and 4.1% in 2018. This last projection has cut a tenth in relation to the one published last October.
however, the acceleration of global trade in goods and services is unequal. Will grow more on the part of emerging markets and developing economies. In developed economies, the IMF has revised downward the growth rate of international trade to 2017 (cut a tenth), and especially to 2018 (cut three decimal places).
Dynamic contrary in the U.S. and in the Euro Area
in Spite of the "uncertainty" that involves the policy of the new Administration to Trump in the us and its global ramifications", the north american economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, projections, higher than in October. In particular, in relation to the second year of the mandate of the Administration Trump, the IMF has revised upwards, to four decimal places, the projection for 2018. Many analysts believe that the impact of expansionary policy of the new tenant of the White House will be felt particularly in the second year.
In the euro zone, despite the risks and financial impact of the negotiation of Brexit (the output of the United Kingdom of the European Union), the IMF staff revised upwards, at a tenth, the growth in 2017. However, the growth trajectory is descending, unlike that of the US. The projections of the Background point to a fall in the annual pace of 1.7% in 2016 to 1.6% in the following two years.
The problem in the euro zone is that Germany, the largest economy should not grow more than 1.5% this year and next, although these projections have been revised higher a tenth, and Spain desacelerará of 3.2% in 2015 and 2016 to 2.3% in 2017 and to 2.1% in 2018.
The 'sick' in the major economies of the euro zone is clearly not the Italy, that will continue to grow each year below the 1% threshold. The rate of growth will decelerate even more in 2017, with a decline of 0.9% in 2016 to 0.7% in the following year, and with a slight acceleration to 0.8% in 2018.
New update in April
As the risks derived of some of the intentions of the policies of the new Administration to Trump are high, as the financial risks in parts of the euro-area banking crisis and over-indebtedness) and in some emerging markets are evident, as the geo-political tensions may increase, the IMF will publish new projections in April, when publishing the World Economic Outlook.
This updating of the IMF is published before they were well known packages of economic measures and geopolitical for the first 100 days of the Administration Trump, who takes possession on the next Friday (January 20th), and before the british government to clarify its strategy for the Brexit with the keynote address of the prime minister Theresa May is scheduled for tomorrow (January 17).
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