Lisbon 02 Set (Lusa) – The UTAO estimates that if the Portuguese economy continues in the second half the chain growth observed in the first, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow 1% this year, down from 1, 8% that the Government had provided.
in the statement of budget execution until July, the Lusa today had access, the Technical Unit of budget Support (UTAO) is based on the data of economic growth for the second quarter released by the National Statistics Institute (INE), 0.3% from the previous quarter, and presents estimates for GDP growth in the second half of the year.
the independent technical support to parliament submit that, “if it continues to change in the first half chain, GDP growth will be 1%” this year.
However, “if the average quarterly growth is projected at 0.6 %, that is, maintaining the forecast for the intra-annual dynamics of the stability program 2016-2020, the annual GDP growth in 2016 would be 1.2%. “
in any projections presented, the calculations of UTAO indicate that economic growth seen this year is expected to be below the government target of 1.8%.
Another exercise presented by UTAO is precisely what the required level of growth in the second half for we reach the target set by Mário Centeno ministry this year.
for this, say the economists UTAO, “will require the average change chain in the second half is about 1.4% “a forecast that is now” more demanding “than it was at the time of the State Budget for 2016 and the stability program 2016-2020.
All the growth projections presented by both entities national and the international, point to a performance of the Portuguese economy below the goal set by the government for this year.
the Bank of Portugal expects GDP to increase 1.3%, the Organization for economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts growth of 1.2%, the IMF expects GDP to grow 1.7% and Europe Commission projects growth of 1.5%.
ND // GC
Lusa / end
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