The State is facing this year a peak demanding repayment of public debt, with the payment to the creditors to be close to 21 billion euros. The environment of financial volatility that has pushed the most vulnerable countries in the euro zone has not disappeared, and a possible rise of interest rates in the markets can have significant implications on the public accounts. The cake of interest represents a significant portion of the refunds – more than 7540 million euros. Aware of the degree of uncertainty that surrounds the forecasts, the Government has come to include in the report of the Budget in 2017, a "sensitivity analysis" to the cost of the interest on the debt if rates rise by one percentage point in relation to the projected. A scenari o that would lead to an increase of the interest charges at 584 million euros in national accounting.
In November, the public debt was 241,8 billion euros, less 1300 million euros less than at the end of October. In the third quarter, amounted to 133,2% of GDP, but the Government’s forecast for the full year of 2016 is lower, 129,7%, waiting for 2017 and the descent to 128,3%.
The debate of the debt is coming up and the theme divides the Government
in the next three years the amount of public debt to be amortized until it relieves in relation to the effort this year, the pressure around to make themselves felt in 2021, the year in which there is a peak of refunds as demanding as of now. The timing of the depreciation and amortization is full of ups and downs over the next few decades, as can be seen in the coming years: after the 20.810 million euros to be paid this year, the value will be much lower in 2018 (from 8040 million), but in 2019 and 2020 to grow back (going to 14.690 million and 15.390 million) and in 2021 there is to repay more than 21 billion.
In 2017, no slice of the cake 20.810 million euros with respect to the payment of the loan granted to Portugal in the time of troika. More than two-thirds (14.470 million) are debt issued Treasury bills and the remaining 6340 million debt medium-and long-term.
If you initially Portugal would only have to pay the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2018/2019, at this time already have planned to continue to make advance payments to the institution, as happened in November, with the repayment of two tranches that would only be paid between September 2018 and February 2019. With this strategy, which began with the previous Government, the team of Mário Centeno in the Ministry of Finance is able to distribute payments and avoid the concentration of repayments in certain years: for example, instead of 4700 million initially foreseen for 2019, now in this year are only paid 1500 million.
In the calendar of repayment of debt, the IGCP makes projections taking already into account that in 2013 the european partners agreed to extend the maturities of the loans from the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) to Ireland and Portugal in seven years, which will enable the Uk do not have to refinance any loan obtained through the EFSM before 2026.
in Addition to the extension of the time limits is made at the european level to ride of the renegotiation to Ireland, the various operations of the exchange and repurchase of debt were being made since 2012. The latest happened in July. To relieve some of the payments achieving an income of approximately neutral, the IGCP has moved forward with an operation that allowed him to swap the debt that would be in 2017, 2018 and 2019 for securities with maturity dates further extended (2025 and 2037). Other operations of the market were being released after Portugal’s return to markets, as happened with the debt repurchase is made in 2014 and again this year with the aim of using the capital available to reduce the cost of interest.
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