Figures released on Monday by the National Statistics Institute (INE) show that after the adjustment period of troika , the trade balance back to record patterns of the past, ie an unbalanced behavior . On the whole 2014, exports of goods increased by 1.9% over the previous year, which is the worst result since 2009. Imports increased 3.2%, which means that it is necessary to go back to 2008 to find another year in which the rate of imports has exceeded that of exports.
One year ago, Paulo Portas It welcomed the fact that exports are to “be the carrier of the economic recovery.” To some extent, the deputy prime minister was right: during the adjustment period, imports slowed down the bottom (because of the decrease of household income) and exports had a good behavior (with companies looking for new markets to compensate the domestic recession). It was the flag that for months the coalition stirred to say that the economy was to get around.
The adjustment was such that Portugal managed to register in some quarters a positive balance, something that perspective annual not been seen since 1943, when the economy benefited from the significant increase in the export of minerals (especially wolfram) and food for the countries involved in World War II.
A year ago, following Doors have dubbed exports of “aircraft carrier of the economy,” the IMF came alert to the fact that much of the external surplus was being achieved at the cost of the contraction of imports and export growth fuels, something unsustainable . This prescient warning from the IMF is somehow backed by data published by the INE, that account for an increase to 10.6 billion from the deficit. Just last week, in the first report after the rescue, the IMF said that the “outboard” of the Portuguese economy was slowing down, whereas the signs of recovery were induce exporters to accommodate and to conform again with the domestic sales.
On Monday, Paulo Portas reacted to INE figures. He did not speak of the aircraft carrier, but came to say that, “contrary to what some thought, exports continue to rise growth phase in [internal]“. It is a part of reality: it is true that exports continue to grow, the sudden stop in the growth rate, coupled with the acceleration of imports shows that, unfortunately, the aircraft carrier begins to run aground. What matters is that tourism (which includes the balance of services) and the low oil prices will help to disguise this problem, which is structural in the economy.
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