By Marta Nogueira
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) – Petrobras may be forced to increase fuel prices for the second time in December, after rival countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) have closed on Saturday an agreement with the cartel cut production, causing a runaway of the reference values of the oil on Monday.
The assessment is of analysts heard by Reuters, that they believe that, in the event the oil remains with the bias high, the company will need to raise prices to not be at a disadvantage in the sales of the internal market. This considering that the rate in the dollar remain stable or appreciating over the month.
“I don’t discount that yet this year they review the new prices (gasoline and diesel) to the top, given that is rising,” said Luiz Fernando Castelli, economist at GO Associados.
oil-producing Countries that are not part of the Opec agreed on Saturday to reduce its production in 562 thousand barrels per day (bpd) as part of a global agreement with Opec, which had already agreed to reduce its own production by 1.2 million bpd.
With that, the price of Brent oil has operated on high for about 3 percent shortly before the closing on Monday, for around 56 dollars per barrel, after touching a maximum of 57,89 dollars sooner, the highest value since July 2015, when it rose more than 6 percent on the session.
Analysts have considered, however, that there still exists a degree of uncertainty in relation to the frequency at which the oil will hold adjustments, since the new pricing policy has only been two months.
In its new policy, Petrobras is not detailed margins that will motivate new adjustments and not the costs of the company for the purchase of fuels abroad, ensuring only that the prices would not be below parity international. The company pointed to only a few parameters, such as exchange rates, oil price, among others.
the Castelli, that performs the inflation projections of the consultancy, explained that the changes are more frequent in fuel prices have brought an unpredictability the greater for the indicators of consumer prices.
“Until now, there has been a default (in the change of fuel prices)… with time, we’ll be incorporating that into the idea, how they (Petrobras) are taking these decisions,” said Castelli, referring to the reference values used by state oil.
For now, the economist has not yet revised its inflation projections for the month.
Since announcing its new pricing policy and the creation of a committee to treat of the derivatives, in October, the oil has already reduced the price of diesel and petrol two times, and increased, in the last week, after the Opec to close the agreement of the court.
The analyst of petroleum Trends, Walter de Vitto, highlighted that the re-up done in the last week happened at a time when the prices of Petrobras were lower than in the suburban.
After the reset and with the current oil prices, according to estimates of Vitto, the values of the gasoline and diesel that Petrobras still are with some advantage relative to those abroad. However, if the bias of the high to remain, an adjustment to this year can not be discarded.
“In our scenario, with the high exchange rate, if this high remains… in fact the Petrobras must pass this (high oil prices) to the consumer,” said Vitto.
Already looking for the long term, analysts do not believe that the agreements reached by Opec and the countries outside have the potential to keep prices valued for a long time.
“When you look at the long term, these measures are beginning to lose a little effect, because prices a lot of pressure in the coming months will stimulate investments, especially in the United States, this will bring more oil and this strategy of the lean (production) does not work,” said Vitto.
The former director-general of the ANP, and the director of the DZ Business with Energy, David Zylbersztajn, and he said that the agreement signed by Opec and the countries not members deal with small volumes in comparison with the demand and the international supply of oil and that there is no guarantee that the business will be fulfilled.
“(The oil prices spiked on Monday) is pure speculation… and no guarantee any of that (the agreement)will be fulfilled,” said Zylbersztajn.
When requested about the subject, Petrobras has reaffirmed some guidelines of its policy, saying that it takes into account factors such as price parity international, which already includes costs such as freight, ships, the internal costs of transport and port charges, margin for remuneration of the risks inherent to the operation, in addition to the exchange, among others.
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(By Marta Nogueira)
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