Private consumption accelerates and investment remains negative – Jornal de Negócios – Portugal

On the external front, the more relevant it appears to have come from exports, which went from a positive variation of 1.8% in the second quarter to 5.4% in the third. This leap more than offset the acceleration in imports, which increased from 1,4% to 3,5%.

note that this gain of momentum of exports was observed both in goods as in services (the latter, much influenced by tourism). While the sale of goods abroad was a year-onyear variation from 2.5% to 5.7%, exports of services were left to fall (-0,2%) to pass the grow (4,4%).

Inside the doors, the positive focus goes to household consumption, whose annual growth rose from 1.6% to 1.9%, due to the non-durable goods and services. On the other hand, the investment continues to give negative signals, while remaining in the red. Between July and September, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) resumed decline, although less intense than in the previous quarter (down by 1.5% vs. a decrease of 2.4%). It is the third consecutive quarter of decline for the GFCF. Between the segments of the investment, the building continues to fall and the intellectual property deepened the break. You can observe improvements in the ‘other machinery and equipment”.

“The behaviour of GFCF in construction is explained, in large measure, the decrease of GFCF in total checked in the third quarter, registering an annual variation of-3.7% in real terms, after having declined 3.8% in the 2nd quarter”, say the technicians of the INE.

Only the external trade helped the growth in chain

In the last few days have been written a few articles, in which he argued that the growth had all been part of the external aspect. This is, in fact, the reality, but only to the variation in the chain (0.8% in the third quarter). This analysis – which compares a quarter with the previous quarter – the contribution to the growth came entirely from net external demand, which, after two quarters in the negative, gave a help of 1.3 percentage points. Already, the domestic demand, returned to the input negative (-0,4 points), after nine months in the green.

“compared to the second quarter of 2016, the GDP increased by 0.8% in real terms (0.3% in the previous quarter). The contribution of net external demand to the rate of change in the chain of the GDP was positive, due to the increase of Exports of Goods and Services and the decrease in Imports of Goods and Services, while the contribution of domestic demand was negative, mainly reflecting the reduction of Investment”, can be read in the highlight of the INE.