Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Exports aggravate falling in June – Observer

Exports of goods fell 2% in June and have amassed the fourth consecutive month decline, when compared with the same month last year, aggravating the trade deficit in over 98 million to over EUR 900 million. Fuel sales continue to be mainly responsible for the change.

Another sign of slowing down which could affect the accounts for the national economy this year. According to INE, exports of goods fell again in June when compared to the same month last year, also making a fall in the second quarter (1.9%). The fall is greater than that seen last month, when the exports of goods were falling 1.1%.

Source: INE

Looking at monthly figures, as is that sales are increasing or decreasing from month to month, note that exports are rising for two months and in June even had a month of significant growth, 6.2%.

However, the decline that occurred in the latter part of last year and in April this year, with a monthly growth level of sales of goods to the less expressive exterior, makes exports remain much lower than that observed in the first goal of last year, which impairs the GDP accounts this year .

imports fell less, just 0.4%, after a very pronounced decline in May of 3.8%. In quarterly terms, the accounts are more positive (for the trade imbalance goods), since despite the fall said on exports by 1.9%, imports fell by 3.7% compared to the second quarter last year.

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Source: INE

Still, according to the INE accounts, the trade deficit of goods (balance between imports and exports) worsened in June, now in over 68 million to what was witnessed in June 2015. With the new increase, this deficit worsened to € 924 million.

Fuel unbalancing accounts

as it has, a good deal of variation, both in exports and imports, due to the variations in fuel prices. In June compared with the same month last year, the value of fuel sales fell by 27.4%, similar to that recorded in the purchase of fuel, which fell 26.2%. The good news is the sale of food and beverages, which increased by 4.7%.

In the case of imports, there are significant variations, for example, transport equipment sales increased by 25% especially under the heading of other transport equipment (+ 129.9%) due to the purchase of aircraft from Brazil and the United States that were sold to TAP. Imports of consumer goods grew by another 8.5%

The biggest headaches:. Angola and China

The crisis in Angola continues to headaches Portugal and in what way. The downward trend is old and shows no signs of slowing down. In June this year, compared with the same month in 2015, sales to Angola fell 42%. Business with Angola, a major customer of Portuguese exports in 2015, but also a leading supplier of Portuguese imports, are getting up considerably and continues.

The balance between Lisbon and Luanda continues positive for Portugal, but this only happens thanks to a full braking of imports, which fell 55.6%. Ie Portugal sold less 73 million products to Angola, but also bought least 102 million euros. In June last year, the balance of trade between the two countries was negative for Portugal

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Exports and imports by countries. Source: INE

The case of China is different. The slowdown of the Chinese economy is having some impact around the world, but with special emphasis on Asian countries that provide it with raw materials, along with some South American and African countries. In the case of trade with Portugal, there is, again, a sharp drop in goods that the second largest economy in the world is to buy Portugal (-39.5%).

The difference causes Portugal spend twice as much to buy goods to China than they can sell, because Portugal increased imports from China at 2.8%, about four million.

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