Even so, GDP confirms slowdown cycle, analysts say – Globo.com

Although better than market forecasts, growth of 0.1% of the Brazilian economy, released on Friday (27) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), confirms a strong cycle slowdown, evaluate economists surveyed by G1 .

For the director of economic research of Go Associates consulting, Fabio Silveira, the result is very close to the expected and “nothing surprising”.

“We can say that is stagnation, because it is very close to zero.” The most recent forecast of the Central Bank realized a decrease of 0.1%.

The teacher of the FGV economy MBA, Virene Machado believes that the recalculation of GDP helped raise its measurement. “If it was still published by the old methodology, I believe the result would be negative,” he said.

For her, the result indicates a “strong slowdown” of the combined economy to high inflation, which closed 2014 at 6, 41%, close to the target ceiling. “For 2015, we expect somewhere around 8%, almost double the center of the inflation target,” says

It was also expected high driven by the service sector (0.7%). – item with the highest weight and gained more relevance in the new methodology of IBGE – as well as the 0.4% growth in agribusiness and the fall in industrial production of 1.2%, says Silveira

. Fourth quarter 2014
The high of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the third quarter shows a “slight improvement” within a cycle with negative performance, but should not be sufficient to prevent the expected decline for the first quarter of 2015, according to the economist of Go Associates.

The chief economist at Rosenberg Associates, Thais Zara, points out that consumer spending helped lift the last quarter performance, but should not remain at this level in the coming periods. “The fall of the fourth quarter 2014 compared to the same period of 2013 shows that the economy is still bad,” he said.

Fall in investment
The fall of 4, 4% in the investment rate (Gross Fixed Capital Formation), although lower than the 7% established by BC, brought no surprises, according to the teacher. The recalculation of the IBGE, according Virene, reduced the negative impact of investments with the incorporation of Research & amp; Development (R & D). The calculation

“The decline in investment is more worrying that a decline in government spending or consumer spending, because it shows a commitment to the future” commendation Professor <. / p>

Recalculation
The calculation which measures the country’s wealth was different from this year. The new methodology included data that did not exist, information shifted and changed the classification of some items, leaving the most accurate measurement. New data were incorporated from 2010, generating a revision of the entire series until 1995.

The new calculation of GDP has been enhanced to follow international standards recommended by agencies such as the UN, OECD and World Bank and that should be adopted by countries by 2016. The change is to ensure a comparison and more accurate calibration between the economies. The last change in methodology had occurred in 2007.