The index of the unregistered economy, also called black economy, increased slightly in 2013, up from 26.74% of official GDP to 26.81%.
Despite the slight increase it is a new record for the series started in 2008, but recalculated until 1970.
The smaller rise in unregistered economy from the previous years is partly explained by GDP growth, passing of 160 455 million between 2000 and 2012 to 171,211 million in 2013.
The rise of unreported production is explained by increases in the tax burden and the unemployment rate, but also by the failure in combating high evasion tax.
The index, released on Wednesday by the Centre for Economics and Fraud Management (OBEGEF), Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, shows that, in absolute terms, the unregistered economy amounted about 45,900 million euros, about 60% of what Portugal has asked the troika .
No parallel economy, the official GDP would increase from 171 211 million for 217,113 million. If the black economy in Portugal stay within the average of OECD countries, which stood at 16%, the value of GDP at current prices, would be 198,034 million.
government deficit to GDP, which in 2013 was 4.85%, would, according to the calculations of OBEJEF in 3.83% without parallel economy and without additional taxation.
No black economy and applying a 20% tax rate on this wealth, the country would no longer have deficit, starting to have a surplus of 0.40%.
If the shadow economy in Portugal stayed in the OECD average, and by applying a 20% tax rate, the deficit would be 2.5%, below the limit required by Brussels in 2014.
The index of the shadow economy estimated by the Faculty of Economics of Porto is well above the 13% of GDP estimated by the National Statistics Institute (INE), a divergence assumed by Oscar Alfonso, vice president of OBEGEF. “They do not agree with our values and we do not agree with them,” he said, adding that the calculations of the Faculty of Economics have been tested and evaluated by an international magazine.
President’s OBEJEF, Carlos pepper, concludes that “there would be a problem if the values of Porto School of Economics were lower because there are several areas of the underground economy that the INE does not consider.”
For Carlos Pimenta, “the INE should calculate GDP as always calculated “and fail to make creative accounting. The official admits, however, that the NSA is meeting Community rules, such as the inclusion of figures for activities related to prostitution, drug, or extrapolation of the rent amounts payable by the Portuguese, even those who own their own homes.
The results of some of the recent government measures in the fight against tax evasion, in particular the program e-invoices, with the draw cars, are not yet visible in the series. Óscar Afonso admits that from next year it may start to occur, despite consider these measures insufficient, since, in his view, “the state or states pactuam with great things [tax evasion on a large scale] such as off-shore. “
It also accepts that it pursues” more tolerable underground economy, often self-consumption, and less to another. ” And in the “other” economy is tax evasion achieved through double taxation agreements, the existence of ghosts and accounting manipulations companies, among others.
The OBEJEF recovers recommendations from other years as the criminalization illicit enrichment, more rigorous management of public resources, combating corporate fraud, money laundering and encouraging the use of electronic means in market transactions.
The shadow economy includes the illegal economy ( as drug and weapons trafficking), the hidden (underreporting or underground), the informal, production for own use and production subcoberta disability statistics.
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