Exports picked up and domestic demand has grown
The Portuguese economy grew 0.8% in real terms in the third quarter, compared to the previous one, and 1.6% in homologous terms, that is, compared to the same period last year, reported Tuesday the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The statistics office explained that “the growth in the most intense of GDP reflected mainly the increase in the contribution of net external demand, with an acceleration more expressive of exports of goods and services” in the face of imports of goods and services. And emphasises that the acceleration of exports “was common to the components of goods and services”.
on the other hand, also increased the contribution of internal demand to the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter, as a result of the “acceleration of private consumption” due to the behavior of the component of non-durable goods and services, while the component of durable goods slowed down.
In comparison to the second quarter, the growth of the Portuguese economy was 0.8% in real terms (0.3% in the previous quarter), after the contribution of net external demand has been positive, reflecting “the strong increase in exports of goods and services,” while “domestic demand recorded a negative contribution”.
The values today disclosed that exceed the expectations of several analysts contacted by Reuters, who estimated that on average increases of 0.3% in the chain, and 1.1% year-on-year, attributing them mainly to a drop in domestic demand.
For the office of the minister Mário Centeno, “these data do not surprise us”. “The confidence indicators, coincident and advanced several institutions were already predicting an acceleration of economic activity”, the ministry said in a statement, reminding that “the growth was sustained in the components, external and internal, and in the strong employment growth”.
Estimates were the most pessimistic,
The most pessimistic was the Core of the economy of the Portuguese Economy (NECEP), the Catholic University, which has anticipated an economic growth of 0.2% in chain and 1% on the previous year.
The economists of the Catholic University were “deeply concerned” with the investment, which came back in the second quarter, “suggesting that the process of recovery of the Portuguese economy has suffered an outage”.
The estimation of the analysts of the BPI pointed to an economic growth between 0.2% and 0.3% in the third quarter compared to the previous, and 1% on the previous year and the Montepio geral were slightly more optimistic, estimating an annual growth in GDP of 1.1% and an advance of 0.3% in the chain.
Also, BBVA has estimated an advance of the GDP of 0.3% in the third quarter compared to the second, due to the strength of consumption, to the dynamism of the export of goods and services (tourism), hampered by an “investment held back by uncertainty”.
in turn, the Higher Institute of Economics and Management (ISEG) was the most optimistic, expecting a growth in the chain by 0.5% and year-on-year by 1.3% in the third quarter.
The Government forecasts that the Portuguese economy to grow by 1.2% in 2016, an estimate that is among the more optimistic among analysts contacted by Lusa, that present forecasts between 0.9% (NECEP) and 1.2% (central value of the estimate of ISEG).
THE INE explains that this quick estimate includes revisions in the information basis used, in particular arising from the use of more recent data from the international trade of goods, with revisions, in nominal terms, and at the level of the deflators for the second quarter of 2016, but added that this new information “did not result from revisions in the rates of change year-on-year and chain of the GDP”.
The current results of the Quarterly National Accounts for the third quarter of 2016 will be released in the next day, 30 November, says the INE.
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