The data of the National Statistical Institute (INE) continue to point to a trajectory of the relief of unemployment in Portugal. The last value that had been reported pointed to a rate of 11% in August. This was a provisional figure. Now, with the definitive data in hand, the INE says that the unemployment that month was after all in the 10,9%, in line with July. For September, the provisional figures point to a fall in unemployment to 10.8%.
In August, there were 560 thousand unemployed, roughly the same value than in July. For September, the INE anticipates that the unemployment has been fixed at eur 556 thousand. As regards the employed population, in August there was 4.574,6 thousand Portuguese with work (1.7 thousand of that in July). For September, the INE hopes that have been in the 4.567,5 (not less than seven thousand).
In September, the decrease projected for the unemployment was due, according to the INE, to the men (minus 2.3 percent), since the population of unemployed women increased by 0.7%. Adults (over 24 years) unemployed fell by 0.7% and of young people of 1.3%. As for employees, the trend is similar: more employment for men (up 0.3%) and less women (less than 0,6%). Among the young the employment remained almost unchanged, having advanced 0.2 percent among adults.
warning Signs: unemployment is not adjusted rises
Not everything is good news for the Portuguese labour market. The pace of fall in unemployment seems to be slowing down. In addition, the data cited so far are adjusted for seasonality. That is, consider the effect that Summer has on the creation of employment, through jobs seasonal. In June, for example, the adjusted data pointed to an unemployment rate of 11% and the data have not been adjusted they said that it was at 10.6%. Now that the Summer is coming to an end get to witness a contrary trend.
unemployment is not adjusted is on the increase since July of this year, from 10.5% to 10.8% in September (provisional value). The same happens with the number of unemployed, which has increased by 10 thousand between July and August, and four thousand in September.
The Government’s forecast in the Plan for Stability in the unemployment average in 2016 was 11,4%, having revised downwards the estimate to 11.2% in the OE 2017.
See below for the full table of the data on unemployment published today by the INE:
(updated News and corrgido the number of people employed in September)