Luís Pires Reis
The German economy is still struggling to re-accelerate after braking suffered in the second quarter, when GDP fell by 0.2%.
They call it the powerhouse of Europe, but the engine is in need to be tuned. The various indicators that have been published in recent days show that Germany is having a difficult 2014 and without much force to pull the eurozone, whose recovery from the crisis caught the bottom.
On Monday, it was known that industrial orders fell to the lowest level in the last five years. Then the index which gives an account of industrial production in August followed the same path. And today the Federal Statistical advanced that, in August, exports also fell to 2009 levels, the year of worldwide recession.
August is the peak of summer and the data are normally more volatile. Even so, the decline was significant: 5.8% YoY, ie, over the same month last year. In July, sales abroad had risen 4.8% and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg pointed to a fall of around 4% in August.
The evolution of German exports continues to be influenced by the crisis geopolitics with Russia and the embargo that the Kremlin ordered the European products, as well as by the very situation in the eurozone, whose economy has caught the bottom and try this time, under the patronage of the European Central Bank (ECB), escape a threat . negative growth and low inflation
Although Germany also be faltering, Berlin remains steadfast in its vision of fiscal discipline at all costs, making opposition to the thesis – that has been gaining traction in some countries Europe and institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – you need to start using public spending to pull by investment and GDP, creating ‘spin-offs’ important to the rest of Europe – and running, then yes, as locomotive . On Monday, Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said it is not time for Europe to deviate from his way and tear up efforts in recent years, pushing the idea of increasing the public expenditure.
The data also show that today’s advanced German imports also fell 1.4% year on year, after a fall of 1.3% in July, and that the external surplus of the economy fell to 10.3 billion euros.
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