The Portuguese economy is holding back the recovery trend, according to the OECD leading indicator, which in August fell for the fifth consecutive month.
The composite indicator advanced the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), designed to anticipate six to nine months turning points in economic activity relative to trend, fell in July for the fifth consecutive month to Portugal.
This decline indicates that the Portuguese economy will have a weaker performance in the coming months, you must still continue to grow. The index stood at 101.28 points in August, down 0.14% compared with that recorded in July.
In the annual comparison, from August last year, the variance remains positive ( 1.82%), although less intense than in previous months. In July the annual variation of this indicator was 2.32% and in the first months of the year the growth was over 4%.
The last IMF revised downwards its projection for GDP growth this Portuguese year from 1.2% to 1%, while keeping unchanged the estimated growth in 2015 (1.5%). Already today the Bank of Portugal lowered the estimate for GDP growth this year from 1.1% to 0.9%.
This evolution of the OECD indicator suggests a slight deterioration in the economic outlook, after a long monthly increases cycle started in June 2012, which signaled the departure of the Portuguese economy to recession. This growth cycle indicator ended in March 2014 and has since suffered slight monthly declines.
As for the global economy, the OECD notes that the indicators show mixed signals in several economies, with a “weak growth in the Eurozone and steady growth in most other major economies. “
The OECD highlights the” strong signals “brake on growth in Germany and Italy.
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