Estimated deficit reported by INE exceeds the target of the Government – Expresso

Estimated deficit reported by INE exceeds the target of the Government – Expresso

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The National Institute of Statistics (INE) sent to Brussels a deficit of 4.8% of GDP this year, according to the report sent to Brussels and announced this Tuesday. It is a value eight tenths above advanced by the Government in amending budget, since it included the assumption of debt by the State of Carris and STCP and also impairments in Parvalorem (ex-BPN).

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This value has been calculated according to the new methodology of the national accounts ESA 2010, which entered this year in force and introduces several changes in the calculation of GDP and fiscal balances. In practice, though sent by INE, this value is an estimate of the deficit the Government, in the same way that the projections of public debt are the responsibility of the Bank of Portugal. The data will be appreciated by Eurostat, the European statistics office, which has a period of three weeks to publish the results.

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When presented Amending the end of August, the government kept the original deficit target of 4% although it underscore once, that estimate had not been included in some operations. Since then the assumption of debt of transport companies Carris and STCP an amount of EUR 1 192 million (0.7% of GDP) and the assumption of losses on loans BPN Crédito, now held by the public entity Parvalorem (of around 0, 1% of GDP).

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Now, a month later, the data sent to the INE for later reporting to Brussels already points to a higher value where these transactions are treated.

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Carris and STCP remain outside perimeter of the budget, even with the new methodology, and that liabilities assumed are recorded in the deficit this year. Already a CP, which becomes part of the budget perimeter, will aggravate the debt – so apportioned among the several years – from 2010 but does not affect the deficit.

<- end st_tag_p -> The other operation that, for now, remains out of the accounts is the intervention on BES which, ultimately, can lead to the worsening of the deficit of 4900 million euros if it is considered a capital transfer. In this scenario, whose final decision will be to Eurostat, the deficit would reach 7.6%. <- St_tag_p begin ->

In any case, whether the rescue operations of the BES wants now included in the calculation of the deficit this year, should not compromise the evaluation of Brussels on compliance budgetary targets. Because, except for Parvalorem (which has implicated successive losses but in this case involves only 0.1% of GDP), the rest are extraordinary expenses and do not, therefore, greater effort for 2015

In the case of debt, estimated to be 127.8% at the end of this year. In 2013, was 128% of GDP.

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[corrected News 16:30]

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