Subscriptions savings certificates overcame the second consecutive month to € 300 million, maximum values in 14 years, show data published Monday by IGCP, the agency responsible for managing treasury and Portuguese government debt.
The peak of the applications was registered in July, the month in which the Portuguese have applied for EUR 323 million in these savings instruments. Was the highest since August 2000 and, although subscriptions have slowed, again register a historically high value of € 305 million.
The 628 million invested in these two months represent more one third of the whole amount of savings certificates issued from January to August. Increased investment in products of Portuguese government debt has become more pronounced in the last year, the returns are offered, either by reducing the risk associated with sovereign debt. But for several months the monthly subscriptions not reached to 200 million, which only came about in April and May this year.
The threshold of 100 million had been surpassed in May 2013 The returns offered on savings certificates, above 3% (higher than the rate offered by banks on new deposits), have fueled the growth of these instruments. But the “leap” that occurred in July and August – also visible in the new treasury certificates More Savings – may have been influenced by some specific factors, with these instruments to serve as refuge retail depositors in the context of the crisis in the Spirit Group Santo (GES) and BES.
First, note the chief economist at Montepio, Rui Bernardes Serra, net subscriptions (discounting depreciation certificates) show that “the rise in August not only reflects the seasonality associated with the time of year. ” On the one hand, vinca, “the crisis in GES led to a reduction of deposits in the BES / New Bank, to the detriment of other applications banking institutions, and the state must have also benefited from this flight.”
On the other hand, continues Rui Bernardes Serra, one must take into account the “reduction of risk perceived by international investors in Portuguese debt.” The decrease in interest, evident in the reduction of the difference of Portuguese rates compared to German bonds, “has been making return to retail debt instruments Portuguese investors who have turned away these investment from major international recession of 2008 and above from the entrance of the troika in Portugal in spring 2011. ” After a period of negative balance, it was not until December 2012 that subscriptions again overcome depreciation. This month, subscriptions were 66 million and depreciation were up by 65 million.
According to the chief economist at Montepio, one must also take into account another factor in this months July and August affected the performance of a number of Portuguese families: the payment of holiday allowance and the temporary replacement of civil servants’ salaries. These factors had led to a “sharp rise in deposits in July.” And “this argument seems to be corroborated by the fact that the third largest increase ever in the stock savings certificates / treasury certificates have occurred in November 2013,” because at that time also witnessed a increase in deposits when it was paid holiday pay civil servants.
Together, subscriptions savings certificates and treasury in August amounted to EUR 611 million, a net worth of 555 million if discounting the amount of amortized titles. Altogether, these two retail products sold at counters CTT have been investors this year over 3400 million (first eight months of the year).
To read these numbers as a whole need to wait for other indicators juncture, as the estimates of savings of households. The latest data on the saving rate, measured by the INE, relate to the first quarter (11.9%). The latest survey of consumer situation reveals a deterioration index that measures the degree of savings, unlike the trend of the previous three months.
The direct state debt already exceeded in August, the 216 billion euros, 925 million more than the previous month. In this volume are, for example, the titles of short-term debt and long term, the amounts of the loans troika , passing the savings products sold at counters CTT.
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