Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Job creation explains 91% of the reduction of unemployment – Express

there have Been nine in every 10. This is the contribution of increased employment to the reduction of unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2016. The numbers of the National Statistical Institute (INE), disclosed this Wednesday, do not leave margin for doubt. In the last three months of last year, the employed population in Portugal increased from 82.1 thousand people, in comparison with the same period of 2015. Already the reduction of the unemployed population was of 90,7 thousand people. Accounts made, the job creation net explained 90.5% of the reduction of unemployment.

The weight of the increase of employment in reducing unemployment was critical. But, it was not always so. After the black year of 2013, when at the height of the economic crisis the unemployment in Portugal exceeded 17%, the unemployment started to go down, but job creation net explained only a portion of this reduction. In 2014, in annual average terms, employment growth is explained little more than half (54,3%) of the reduction in the unemployed population. The rest was due to the unemployed persons who "disappeared" from the statistics of the INE, either because they have emigrated and left the country, either because they have stopped actively seeking a job, going to be classified as inactive. More still, much of the employment created at that time was the result of internship programs and employment support, developed by the Institute of Employment and Vocational Training.

Since then, the situation has been changing. For the better. The numbers annual average of the INE show that the contribution of job creation and the net reduction of the unemployed population has been increasing, reaching 61.9% of in 2015 and 76,9% in 2016.

unemployment Rate closes in 2016 in the 10.5%

the data from The INE show that the unemployment rate in Portugal was in the 10.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016 (value not adjusted for seasonality). This number remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter and is lower by 1.7 percentage points from the second quarter of 2015," says the Institute.

Already in terms of annual average, the unemployment rate was 11.1% in 2016. A value that "represents a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2015". Even more, this number is lower than the Government’s forecast of 11.2%, which had been recorded in October in the State Budget for 2017. At the beginning of the year in the State Budget for 2016, the Executive António Costa pointed to an unemployment rate in 2016 of 11.3%.

the unemployment rate of young people (aged 15 years to 24 years) stood at 28% in annual average terms, in 2016, a value of 4 percentage points below the previous year. But, that means that 101,8 thousand young people were actively seeking employment, without being able to find.

The unemployed population was estimated by the INE in 543,2 thousand persons in the fourth quarter, which represents a decrease of 1.2% compared to the three previous (less than 6.3 thousand people) and a reduction of 14.3% in homologous terms, that is, in relation to the fourth quarter of 2015 (less 90,7 thousand people).

Already the employed population was estimated at 4643,6 thousand persons in the fourth quarter of 2016, registering a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous three months (less by 17.9 thousand people), and an increase of 1.8% on equivalent terms (more from 82.1 thousand jobs in net terms).

Considering the annual average values, the unemployed population was estimated by the INE in 573 thousand people in 2016, less up 11.4% on the previous year (less than 73,5 thousand people). Here, we highlight the long-term unemployment, which remained very high. The proportion of the unemployed seeking employment for at least 12 months was of 62.1%. That is, 355,6 thousand people. Even so, this proportion fell by 1.5 percentage points over the 2015.

Services with the biggest increase in employment

No surprises, the services are the sector with the biggest increase in employment in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared with the same period of 2015. Were more 52,9 thousand jobs in net terms. Here, we highlight the area of logistics (transport and storage) and the information and communication activities, with more 36,9 thousand jobs. Activities financial, insurance and real estate contributed by 22.1 thousand jobs to increase employment.

Also the industry, construction, energy and water recorded a significant increase in employment, with more 45,6 thousand people employed. In these sectors, the INE highlights manufacturing industries and construction, with an increase of employment in 18,8 thousand people, 19 thousand persons, respectively. After the strong crisis in the sector, construction is recovering employment.

On the contrary, employment in agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry and fishing shrank and 16.4 thousand people. In the Public Administration and defence; compulsory social security; education; and health activities and social support, the reduction was 5.8 thousand jobs. Since trade; repair of vehicles; and hotels and restaurants were conspicuous by their stability of employment, with a slight increase, in the aggregate, of 700 people.

Almost 124 thousand young "neither-nor"

Is one of the numbers more worrying about the young Portuguese. The data of the National Statistical Institute (INE) indicate that in the fourth quarter of 2016 had 123,8 thousand young people, of 15 years to 34 years, in Portugal, nor studying, nor working, nor looking for a job. That is, 42% of young people known as "neither-nor" were in inactivity. The remaining 58% of the young people in this age group who were not employed, they were neither in education or training were classified by the INE as unemployed, or is, sought actively a job and were available to work.

The Shuttle had already called attention to this problem in November of last year. At the time, the data of the third quarter of 2016 showed that there were 136,3 thousand young people neither studying, nor working, nor looking for a job. A number which meant that the proportion of inactive among the young "neither-nor" reached 45.2 percent.

Since then, the numbers have fallen. However, they remain above those recorded in the third quarter of 2015, when 114,6 thousand young people aged from 15 years to 34 years neither studying, nor working, nor looking for a job. At that time, the proportion of inactive among the young "neither-nor" was by 36,7%.


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