The CTT are going down 11,14% to 5,342 euros, having already traded in the 5,318 euros this Monday, January 30. This is the lowest value since the shares of the company led by Francisco Lacerda traded on the stock exchange.
To justify the descent pronounced of the securities will be the revision of the estimates disclosed by the company last Friday. The CTT estimate that a reduction of 4.2% of the mail in the fourth quarter implies a reduction of between “4 and 5% in the operating income 2016,” according to a statement sent to the comissão do mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM).
The previous forecasts pointed to a decline in the mail close to 3%, but the holidays that occurred at the end of the year meant that the fall was higher. On the other hand, the “initiatives for revenue growth”, which would have a “limited impact”, will not have any impact on income in 2016.
In the last communication on the estimates of the company for 2016, the data suggest that the target EBITDA is drawn would be “difficult to achieve”, however the “the strong performance in the third quarter” was a “solid basis” for the second half of the year. However, the data from the last quarter led to a deterioration of this perspective. And the company anticipates now a drop of 4% to 7% in recurring EBITDA in the year 2016 (excluding Bank CTT),” adds the same source.
“Although this update, the administration reaffirms that it may propose a minimum dividend of 0.48 euros per share for 2016, payable in 2017″, the statement said. This value corresponds to a growth of 2.1% compared to 2015.
These reviews have generated reactions from analysts. JPMorgan cut the rating of the CTT in more than 30%, or nearly 3,0 euros, with investment bank to establish a target price of 6,05 euros. The recommendation has also been reduced to “underweight”.
Already analysts CaixaBI emphasise that this is “a negative development for the CTT. In fact, the changes in question indicate a lower performance than previously expected for the year 2016, with implications at the level of profitability. In addition, we remind you that this is the second revision made by CTT to its 'guidance' to start for this year, after the company announced a previous review in August 2016 (in the context of the presentation of the results of the second quarter)”.
“This is, obviously, negative, and the evolution of mail volumes in the second half was especially disappointing”, which, along with less registered mail “has led to a drop in revenues of mail, highlights the Haitong.
“After this 'profit warning' we doubt that investors will continue to give the benefit of doubt to the GUEST room,” says the analyst Nuno Estácio, Haitong. “We need to revise our numbers and our estimate of EBITDA can drop by about 6% to 7%”, after incorporating the disclosed data.
The analyst is that it considers that the CTT continue to negotiate without being in the “multi-expensive”, and even though he admits that “there are no major reasons to change the evaluation [of CTT] in the short-term,” notes that the “shares have been weak in recent months and, therefore, we believe that these bad news are already partially embedded” in the value of the shares.
The Haitong decided to put the action “under review” to reflect in its assessment the new data.
(News updated at 9:21 with more reactions)