With the non-petroleum economy of timor-leste to be still incipient, the greater part of the State Budget is funded in Timor-Leste by withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, where the fall in the price of crude oil and production of petroleum, the pair of lower dividends, has been noted in recent years.
The accounts of the Government are presented in the book of “Budget Overview” that accompanies the proposal of the State Budget for 2017, to which Lusa had today access, where if confirms a scenario of `exhaustion` of the production in the Timor Sea.
The oil revenues from the wells at Bayu-Undan and Kitan, which were 978,9 million dollars in the past year, have fallen to less than a third this year (316,6 million) and are expected to drop even more, to 263,4 million in 2017.
This means that, in two years, petroleum revenues direct `royalties` and taxes – excluding dividends from the Petroleum Fund will fall more than 73% in 2017 down to a third (82.5 million) in 2018.
In the same trend, despite the slight increase expected in 2017, is the return of the investments of the Petroleum Fund, which in 2017 should add 842,9 million dollars, and in 2018 to fall to 824,1 million.
The data show that the previous forecast of the Government had been too ambitious, since for this year, for example, the Government had initially forecast an average price of 64.7 us dollars per barrel of oil, looking back now this prediction in low to 42.7 us dollars.
With the end of production from the Kitan field in the past year, all eyes turn now to the field, Bayu-Undan, where the Government also revised the forecast of production in low, confirming that the peak was reached in 2011 and that since then “has been in decline, before ceasing in 2020″.