“Still with downside risks significant, the macroeconomic scenario underlying the POE/2017 projections statistically plausible”. It is with this conclusion that the council of the Public Finances gives positive opinion to the accounts of this Budget – the first time that happens with this Government.
The group of economists points out that there are “risks” in the macroeconomic scenario, especially “linked to the forecasts related to trade balance with the exterior and of the gross fixed capital formation” (investment), underlining that these are “variable-key to the realization of the scenario projected”.
In the short opinion, it should be noted that the estimates for the growth of the economy are in line with those made by the major international organisations, that even with variations in several items. Example of that is the growth of investment in 2017 or exports, based on prospects for recovery of countries such as Brazil or Angola. “Exports are the component that has the largest contribution to the growth of GDP in volume in 2017, based on a strong recovery of the external demand (at 1.8 p.p., passing from 2.4% to 4.2%) which has an underlying high degree of uncertainty,” says the body chaired by Teodora Cardoso.
THE CFP notes that the Government acknowledges, now that the economy is growing more slowly than predicted in April. And notes “the replacement of the role of private consumption as an engine of economic growth by exports and investment”, a new model of development compared to the previously presented, based on the increase of private consumption – that has not happened.
The Council regrets also “do not have information that would allow, steadily, to appreciate the framework of policy measures outside the sphere of the budget, which may have an effect on the dynamics of the investment planned by the Ministry of Finance”. And notes a critique: “In the domain of fiscal policy, the absence of fiscal stability is, admittedly, a field of uncertainty that is not positive for the investment.”
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