Tuesday, October 4, 2016

IMF returns with new predictions: six conclusions from the numbers Washington – RTP

growth in The Euro Area has been revised upwards. On the contrary, the technicians cut in the forecasts for the Portuguese economy.
Portugal grows less
The International Monetary Fund has again cut in the forecast for the growth of the Portuguese economy. The numbers in Washington were already distant from that are presented by the Government in the Budget of the State, now the difference is greater.

The technicians Christine Lagarde estimated that the economy there to grow by one percent in 2016, a value of four tenths percentage lower than the previous estimate.

The International Monetary Fund is now who has the lowest growth estimate between international organizations. In its projection and spring, the European Commission has envisaged a growth of 1.5 per cent. The OECD, in June, it was estimated that the Portuguese economy would grow 1.2 per cent in 2016.

Oficialmente the Government maintains as a goal the 1.8 percent registered in the State Budget for 2016, and in the Stability Programme. However, António Costa has admitted already, in an interview to the Public, that the GDP luso is expected to grow just above one percent this year.

By the accounts of the IMF, Portugal will continue to grow below average of the Euro Area. Since 2008, only in 2009, is that Lisbon managed a better value than the average of the countries of the single currency: in height, in the height of the crisis, the Portuguese GDP fell three percent, when the economy of the Euro Zone decreased by 4.5 per cent.
Portugal with less unemployment
The World Economic Outlook is now released brings news less negative for the unemployment numbers. The Fund predicts that Portugal reaches the end of the year, with the unemployment rate in 11.2 percent – a value of four tenths percentage below the previous estimate.

THE IMF projected that the inflation will be 0.7 per cent in 2016 and 1.1 percent in 2017 and that the external accounts to close this year with a zero balance. By the accounts of the technicians of the Fund, the balance of external accounts will be a negative 0.7 per cent of GDP next year.
More growth in the Euro Area
THE IMF has revised upwards slightly the growth projection for the Euro Area. The technicians of Washington now believe that the economy of the single currency will grow 1.7 percent, against the 1.6 per cent shown in the estimate of July.

The Fund has revised also in high growth rate to 2017, but expects, even so, a slowdown of the economy. The Euro Zone is expected to grow 1.5 per cent next year, against the 1.4 per cent indicated in July.

The price of oil, fiscal policy and monetary motivate the growth of the Euro Area, which will however be a reduction in investors ‘ confidence. Concerned, once more, the output of the United Kingdom of the European Union.

The International Monetary Fund alert also for potential problems in the Euro Zone in the medium term, reflecting the demographic issues, the debt and high unemployment. The technicians of Washington alert you to the danger of a banking sector that is still living, the disruption of the international financial crisis.

In 2016, the highest growth rates of the Euro Area should be recorded in Ireland (4.9 per cent), Malta (4.1 per cent), Luxembourg (3.5 per cent), Slovakia (3.4 per cent) and Spain (3.1 per cent). Greece is expected to grow by only 0.1 percent in 2016, to after to see the economy grow 2.8 per cent in 2017.
Beware of protectionism
Before the Brexit , and the eventual election of Donald Trump, the International Monetary Fund warns of the dangers of protectionism. The technicians Christine Lagarde consider that a possible higher close of the economies constitutes a threat "exceptional" for the growth of the world.

Despite the fear, the Fund maintains the growth forecast in the world who had stroke in July. The global economy should advance by 3.1 percent in 2016, and 3.4 percent in 2017.

The numbers do not cease to be far from the growth rates verified in the beginning of the century. In 2007, for example, the world economy has progressed by 5.6 percent.

THE IMF warns that this weak growth, accompanied by unemployment and increased inequalities, is fueling a discourse that ‘ blames the globalization of all evil."

This is a way of thinking evident in the victory of the Brexit in the british referendum, as well as in the political speech of Donald Trump. The applicant has advocated the reinstatement of tariffs, as well as has been critical of free trade agreements.
USA grow below the Euro-Zone
For the first time since 2008, the north american economy is expected to grow less than the Euro Zone. The growth forecast of the u.s. economy has been revised downwards by the International Monetary Fund who now expected a growth of 1.6 percent.

This is a cut of 0.6 percentage points compared with the estimate which had been made in July. The fund predicts that the United States will grow by 2.2 per cent in 2017.
the emerging Countries are pushing, but…

The emerging countries remain the drivers of global growth. Even so, the situation is now more negative than at other times. Russia and Brazil should close the year in recession and China growing less than in the past.

in A year marked by the crisis and by the removal of Dilma Rousseff, Brazil is expected to decrease 3.3 per cent this year. Russia, still under the influence of sanctions to the european and to compare it with the reduction in the price of oil, is expected to register a growth rate of 0.8 percent. The two countries should return to growth in 2017.

China is expected to grow by 6.6 percent this year and 6.2 per cent in the next. India should present rates of economic growth of 7.6 percent in each year.


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